Monday, 12 December 2011

This is only Round 1....

There was never a realistic chance of an agreement that David Cameron could sign up to last week in Brussels because there was never any chance of realistic answers to the two key questions raised by him

1. If there is a new Treaty (whether of 17 or 27) with the Eurozone forming a bloc, which EU decisions in future should be taken by unanimity to prevent the UK being permanently outvoted?
2. If there is a new Treaty (whether of 17 or 27) with the Eurozone forming a bloc, what new definition should there be of qualified majority for EU decisions in future to prevent the UK being permanently outvoted?

But this is only Round 1

1. Nothing happened at the summit to resolve the fundamental problem of the Eurozone ie the difference in competitiveness between its members, which can only be resolved by a devaluation which is put to good use. Nor is there even a true fiscal union with debt mutualisation and fiscal transfers. The least difficult way of achieving a devaluation is for the Eurozone to divide into the North European Euro and the South European Euro.
2. The whole event was mainly about NS's re-election, so there'll be a Round 2 after May. Francois Hollande has said he will re-negotiate the accord in any case but so will NS if he were re-elected (defence co-operation etc)
3. In any case, the accord could very well be overtaken by events when there is a new € crisis - even ECB intervention is not the silver bullet to save the € in its current form because the ECB in the end has to be funded by someone and Germany can't pay for everything).
4. Guy Verhofstadt has already raised questions about the role of the EP in the new architecture, so there’ll be no quick deal