The sorrow of Belgium

Belgium's political crisis continues with the failure to form a new government.

Many predict the break up of Belgium. And it is a real possibility because the human and economic ties between Flanders and Wallonia are much looser than those between the Czech Republic and Slovakia and certainly those within the United Kingdom. I remember a number of conversations with Flemish taxi drivers telling me that they are fed up of subsidising French speakers, one indication that the sense of a common identity in Belgium has broken down.

Belgium has always been one of the most active proponents of the model of a Europe which is based on the Community method, which adds a certain irony to breakdown in that country of what the advocates of that vision of Europe call social solidarity.

In the end of course the resolution of this issue is a matter for the people of Belgium, even though the status of Brussels has an international dimension.

But the disappearance of Belgium would have wider European implications, the first example of potential so called "enlargement from within" since Flanders and Wallonia would both expect to become EU members. What then of Catalonia? Of Scotland? Of Bavaria even? This would raise the prospect of a Europe not of Member States but Member Regions. How far would this go? Are the historians right to see in this the recreation of the Holy Roman Empire, weak and subject to interference by external powers? Or a Europe with a strong centre and weak member entities?

This may or may not be what Europeans want - though it would certainly be a minority view in England - but the point is that it should not be allowed to emerge by default. If it happens it should be the result of conscious decision and, like other constitutional changes such as the Treaty of Lisbon, be determined by inter-governmental agreement ratified by referendum